24.10.2025 - Daily Cocoa Market Report

Market Overview

Cocoa futures eased on Friday after a strong week, consolidating gains as traders locked in profits ahead of the Ivory Coast presidential election. Both London and New York markets retreated slightly, with selling driven primarily by short-term profit-taking rather than a shift in fundamentals.

London December cocoa settled at £4,519 per ton, down 0.9%, while March closed at £4,561. New York December cocoa fell 0.3% to $6,319 per ton, and March ended at $6,389. Despite the daily decline, both markets posted solid weekly gains — +6.8% in New York and +9.5% in London — driven by tightening certified stocks, sustained physical demand, and short covering among managed money traders.

Inventory / Stocks

US certified stocks: 1,843,721 bags, down 8,800 from Thursday’s 1,852,521 (–0.48%).
UK certified stocks: 489,531 tons, down 17,500 from 507,031 (–3.4%).

Certified inventories declined for the fifth consecutive session, totaling a combined weekly drawdown of about 26,000 tons. The decline reflects continuous drawdowns from ICE warehouses and limited new grading. London’s sharper stock reduction underscores tightening supply for European buyers ahead of the holiday manufacturing season.

Stock-to-Grind Ratio and Volume Influence

The global stock-to-grind ratio continues to hover around 31.6%, the lowest level since early October, signaling tightening supply relative to demand.

Trading volumes declined to 18,579 in New York and 18,902 in London, a natural cooldown after midweek speculative covering. Lower participation alongside stable pricing suggests consolidation, not reversal, as the market pauses ahead of key political and regulatory developments.

Futures / Market Metrics

At an exchange rate of 1 GBP = 1.34 USD, London Dec cocoa equates to $6,049 per ton, compared with $6,319 per ton in New York — a $270 premium in favor of the U.S. market (≈4.3%), slightly narrower than on Thursday.

Market Structure (Contango / Backwardation)

The cocoa curve remains in mild contango, indicating smoother nearby supply compared with last week’s tight backwardation.

• London: Dec £4,519 → Mar £4,561 (+£42)
• New York: Dec $6,319 → Mar $6,389 (+$70)

This forward structure reflects cautious optimism that arrivals could improve in coming weeks, but with certified stocks still falling, near-term supply remains tight.

Commitment of Traders (ICE Europe – Oct 21)

The latest COT data highlight a decisive speculative shift:

• Managed Money: 22,782 long vs. 20,095 short → Net long +2,687 (vs –1,124 previous week).
• Producers/Processors: Remain strongly net short (79,916 short vs. 73,734 long).

This marks the first net-long speculative position in nearly a month, confirming that the week’s price surge was underpinned by short covering rather than new fundamental weakness. US data is not available due to government shutdown.

Supply and Policy Developments

West Africa

Cocoa arrivals in Ivory Coast remain roughly 30% below last season, constrained by lower yields and bean quality concerns. While rainfall has improved pod size, exporters report higher rejection rates at ports due to mold and inconsistent moisture content.

Ghana continues to push for a $200-per-ton premium on EUDR-compliant cocoa. The proposed premium — aimed at rewarding traceability and sustainable farming — would create a pricing advantage for certified beans and could influence global differentials in early 2026 contracts.

Indonesia

Indonesia confirmed that local cocoa demand continues to outpace production, forcing imports of roughly 150,000 metric tons in 2024. The long-term shift of smallholders toward palm oil and rubber has reduced domestic supply potential, reinforcing Asia’s position as a growing demand center and supporting medium-term prices.

Political Situation – Ivory Coast

The Ivory Coast presidential election concluded peacefully over the weekend, with former commerce minister Jean-Louis Billon conceding defeat to incumbent Alassane Ouattara on October 26. Reuters reported that the vote “unfolded without major disruption”, and no significant protests have been recorded so far.

The peaceful outcome reduces immediate logistical risks for cocoa exports. However, traders remain alert to potential localized unrest or policy shifts, as Ouattara’s fourth-term victory consolidates power amid ongoing rural discontent over farmgate pricing.

Cameroon

Tensions persist following the October 12 election in Cameroon, where protests in Douala led to several deaths. While the country contributes only around 6% of global cocoa exports, the instability adds a modest layer of regional uncertainty.

Weather Conditions

Light to moderate rainfall was reported across southern Ivory Coast, Ghana, and Nigeria, maintaining favorable moisture for pod filling and bean drying. Maxar forecasts continued scattered showers this week, supporting crop quality while preventing excessive humidity that could hinder drying.

Outlook

Cocoa markets closed the week on solid footing, supported by tight physical supply, easing political uncertainty, and renewed speculative interest.
Resistance remains near $6,400 (NY) and £4,580 (LDN), with support at $6,250 and £4,480.
A sustained break above resistance could trigger another round of short covering and speculative inflows if post-election stability holds in Ivory Coast.

Key Watchlist for Next Week

• Ivory Coast post-election logistics and port activity
• Ghana’s EUDR premium rollout and trade response
• Certified stock trends at ICE US and ICE Europe
• Indonesia’s import flows and regional grind demand
• COT update (managed money position)
• Technical levels: $6,250–$6,400 (NY) / £4,480–£4,580 (LDN)

Market Interpretation Note

Friday’s pullback was a technical correction within a bullish structure. The short-covering rally earlier in the week pushed speculative traders to their first net-long stance in a month, aligning closer with physical fundamentals.

• Physical market: Continuous drawdowns in certified stocks confirm persistent tightness in deliverable supply.
• Speculative market: Managed money reversed its bearish stance, signaling an improved sentiment and reduced downside risk.

This alignment between speculative flows and real supply stress suggests that the cocoa market’s support base is strengthening.
If arrivals fail to improve by mid-November, or if Ghana’s premium policy shifts trade flows, prices could extend upward toward new seasonal highs.

Weekly Summary Box