15.10.2025 - Daily Cocoa Market Report
Market Overview
Cocoa futures softened slightly on Thursday, with both New York and London contracts easing after recent strength. The decline came amid routine position adjustments ahead of fresh quarterly grind data, which was released after market close. Overall, prices remain well above last week’s levels, supported by persistent supply tightness in West Africa and political tension in Ivory Coast ahead of its October 25 presidential election.
Inventory / Stocks
US cocoa stocks: 1,875,325
Down by 12,020 from yesterday’s 1,884,345 (–0.6%).
The drawdown indicates moderate bean use by US processors or slower port inflows.
UK cocoa stocks: 510,313
Up by 15,625 from yesterday’s 494,688 (+3.2%).
A notable increase suggesting recent arrivals or inventory build-up in advance of seasonal grind activity.
Futures / Market Metrics
| Market | Contract | Close (Oct 16) | Daily Change | Volume | Previous Close (Oct 15) | Weekly Movement |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York (US) | Dec 2025 | $5,864 | –$20 (–0.3%) | 25,539 | $5,884 | ▲ +2.1% vs last week |
| London (UK) | Dec 2025 | £4,108 | –£91 (–2.2%) | 32,277 | £4,199 | ▲ +0.9% vs last week |
New York cocoa eased slightly after midweek gains, with light volume suggesting a pause before new grind-data-driven positioning. London cocoa posted a steeper drop, reflecting weaker short-term sentiment and possible adjustments by European funds. Despite the pullback, both contracts remain in positive weekly territory, maintaining a broadly bullish tone driven by supply constraints and pre-election uncertainty in Ivory Coast.
Cocoa Grind and Demand Trends
Germany’s third quarter 2025 cocoa grind fell 5.45% year-on-year to 94,882 metric tons, according to the confectionery industry association BDSI. Europe’s overall third-quarter grind declined 4.8% year-on-year to 337,353 metric tons, data from the European Cocoa Association showed.
The reported declines confirm that European demand remains soft, though the results were slightly better than some of the more bearish expectations earlier in the year. In Germany, the smaller contraction compared with the previous quarter’s 17% drop may indicate some stabilization, but overall European processing continues to lag normal levels.
While these figures were published after market close and did not affect Thursday’s price action, traders will likely digest them in the next session. The data may introduce mild downward pressure on futures in the short term as they reflect weaker chocolate consumption and slower bean usage across key European markets.
US, Asia, and Ivory Coast Grinding Outlook
The next focus will shift to US and Asia grind data, expected later this week. Given the European results, a modest year-on-year decline in both regions is likely. US grindings could fall between 2% and 5%, while Asia may show a sharper decline of 5% to 10%, particularly if consumer demand in confectionery continues to soften.
Ivory Coast grinding remains constrained by bean quality and mid-crop shortages. Processors in Abidjan and San Pedro continue to report limited availability of export-grade beans, pointing to lower domestic grind throughput compared to the previous year. These conditions support higher prices in the longer term by keeping effective supply tight, even as demand moderates.
Political Situation in Ivory Coast
Ivory Coast heads toward its presidential election on October 25, 2025. President Alassane Ouattara is seeking a fourth term following the 2016 constitutional amendment that removed term limits. Several opposition figures, including former Credit Suisse CEO Tidjane Thiam and ex-president Laurent Gbagbo, have been barred from the race, raising tensions and protests in several cities.
Authorities have confirmed at least 237 arrests linked to demonstrations. While large-scale unrest has not been reported, the political atmosphere remains fragile. Stability during the election period will be critical for maintaining cocoa exports and port operations. Any disruptions could introduce short-term logistical challenges and add risk premiums to cocoa futures, especially in London contracts that are more sensitive to West African developments.
Outlook
The short-term market tone remains cautiously bullish. While weaker grind data highlight softer demand, tight origin supply and the Ivory Coast election risk continue to underpin price levels. Traders will watch upcoming US and Asia grind reports closely to assess whether the demand slowdown is broadening or confined mainly to Europe.
Weather patterns in West Africa, shipping conditions at Abidjan and San Pedro, and post-election stability in Ivory Coast will remain the dominant factors influencing cocoa prices through late October.
Key Watchlist for Tomorrow
- US and Asia Q3 grind releases: Expected within the next few sessions; traders will look for confirmation of global demand trends following the European data.
- Port activity in Ivory Coast: Monitor bean arrivals and export loadings at Abidjan and San Pedro for signs of supply movement ahead of elections.
- Political developments: Any unrest or transport disruptions linked to the election campaign could create short-term price volatility.
- Weather conditions: Focus on rainfall in southern Ivory Coast and western Ghana, as consistent precipitation remains vital for pod development ahead of the 2025/26 main crop.
- Technical levels: Support for New York Dec futures near $5,800; resistance around $5,940. In London, support lies at £4,050 with resistance near £4,200.