14.10.2025 - Daily Cocoa Market Report

Market Overview

Cocoa futures stabilized this week after recent sharp declines, with New York cocoa closing at $5,884/ton and London cocoa at £4,199/ton for the December contract. Both markets are trading near 1.5-year lows, reflecting persistent demand weakness across global grinding regions despite improving weather conditions in West Africa.

Prices and Volume

While prices edged slightly higher from Monday’s 1.5-year lows ($5,631 NY / £4,829 London), both remain down nearly 50% from their 2024 peaks, reflecting an ongoing demand correction. Volume levels are average, suggesting cautious speculative interest.

Fundamental Updates

Ivory Coast grinding collapse:
GEPEX reported that September cocoa grindings in Ivory Coast plunged 38.6% year-on-year, totaling 33,764 tonnes, bringing the 2024/25 cumulative grind to 588,194 tonnes, down 9.9% year-to-date. This highlights the ongoing profitability pressure on processors such as Barry Callebaut, Olam, and Cargill.

European demand outlook:
Bloomberg’s consensus of 11 analysts expects EU Q3 grinding (due Thursday) to hit a decade low, following similar slumps in Asia (8-year low) and North America (2-year low).

The grinding weakness reflects:

• Persistently high cocoa costs, even after futures fell ~50% from their 2024 peaks.
• Declining cocoa butter profitability, down 75% YTD.
• Manufacturers reformulating recipes with less cocoa content and more substitutes (palm oil, nuts).

Stocks and Supply

Supply conditions in West Africa remain favorable: above-average rains support an abundant main crop, though continued wetness could raise bean quality issues.

Broader Context

Ivory Coast political outlook — elections add short-term uncertainty
Ivory Coast heads to presidential elections on October 25, 2025, where incumbent President Alassane Ouattara is running for a fourth term. The political landscape is tense but more contained compared to previous cycles.

Key opposition figures include:

• Simone Gbagbo, former First Lady, now leading the Movement of Solid Generations (MGS). She’s positioning herself as a populist voice appealing to rural voters, including many cocoa farmers dissatisfied with farmgate prices and high input costs.
• Jean-Louis Billon, a pro-business centrist and former trade minister representing the Democratic Congress, a coalition of 18 parties. He’s pushing for decentralization and greater investment in Yamoussoukro, the political capital.
• Ahoua Don Mello, a former spokesman for Laurent Gbagbo, is running independently, focusing on reducing foreign currency dependence and reforming cocoa pricing policy.
• Henriette Lagou Adjoua, former minister and one of few female candidates, represents a smaller centrist platform emphasizing social inclusion.

While most analysts expect Ouattara to retain power, the opposition’s criticism centers on rising living costs and the perception that the cocoa sector’s windfall profits have not reached farmers.

Election-related risks to cocoa exports:

• Short-term logistics delays: Ports in Abidjan and San Pedro are expected to operate normally, but traders report increased security checks and delays in bean loading ahead of the vote.
• FX and investment climate: Investors are cautious ahead of the vote, which may temporarily slow new financing for local grinders and warehouse expansion projects.

Historically, election years in Ivory Coast have occasionally led to temporary export disruptions, particularly when opposition protests occur in cocoa-producing regions like Daloa and San Pedro. However, as of mid-October, the security situation remains stable, with no reported interference in harvest activities.

Outlook

The combination of weak global grindings, ample weather-driven supply, and slow consumer recovery continues to pressure cocoa prices.
Unless the EU Q3 grind surprises to the upside on Thursday, futures may retest the recent lows near $5,600 (NY) and £4,100 (London) before stabilizing into late October.