13.10.2025 - Daily Cocoa Market Report

Cocoa Trade Blog

— 2 min read

Cocoa futures traded firmly on Monday as traders weighed sharply lower Ivory Coast arrivals against reports of favorable rainfall across the main cocoa belt. The market remains focused on early-season supply constraints and weather conditions shaping the 2025/26 main crop outlook.

📉 Price Performance

  • U.S. Cocoa (New York, Dec-25 contract): Settled at $5,836 per metric ton, up $1 (-0.1%) on the day and 0.1% lower for the week.
    Total trading volume reached 31,406 contracts.
  • U.K. Cocoa (London, Dec-25 contract): Closed at £4,145 per metric ton, down £15 (-0.36%) on the session and 0.36% weaker for the week.
    Total daily volume stood at 35,352 contracts.

Prices have been sliding since mid-August, with both New York and London futures hovering near 18-month lows as traders bet on a rebound in West African production during the 2025/26 main crop.

🌍 Fundamental Developments

Ivory Coast 2025/26 Cocoa Arrivals Down 52% as of October 12


Cocoa arrivals at ports in Ivory Coast reached 48,000 metric tons between October 1 and 12, marking a 52% decline from the same period last season. Exporters reported no arrivals during October 1–5, compared to 13,888 tons in the same period last year.
Deliveries included approximately 23,888 tons to Abidjan port and 24,000 tons to San Pedro, underscoring a sluggish start to the new season amid earlier weather-related crop stress and logistical delays.

The sharp fall reinforces expectations of a tight global supply at the start of the 2025/26 season, continuing the production challenges that defined the previous year.

Above-Average Rains Boost Ivory Coast Harvest Potential


Farmers across Ivory Coast reported above-average rainfall across much of the cocoa belt last week, expected to support an abundant October-to-March main crop. However, they warned of potential quality issues if wet conditions persist.

Rainfall was particularly strong in key growing regions:

  • Agboville: 56.3 mm (32.4 mm above average)
  • Abengourou: 66.2 mm (41.9 mm above average)
  • Daloa: 29.8 mm (6.9 mm above average)

Farmers observed strong flowering and pod development, with many trees carrying new pods expected to mature between January and February. However, black pod disease and bean moisture risks could rise if the rains continue through November.

Weekly temperatures ranged from 25.1°C to 28.6°C, ideal for pod growth.

📈 Market Outlook

The contrast between weak arrivals and favorable rainfall has created a complex short-term outlook.

  • The sharp drop in early arrivals reinforces bullish fundamentals, likely supporting cocoa futures near recent highs.
  • However, optimism over improved main-crop conditions could limit near-term upside unless further disruptions occur.
  • Traders are watching upcoming Ghana arrival data and European grind reports for confirmation of continued supply tightness.

Read more