10.10.2025 - Daily Cocoa Market Report

Cocoa Set for Longest Weekly Losing Run Since 1999 on Demand Dip

LONDON/NEW YORK, Friday — Cocoa prices ended lower on Friday, capping their eighth consecutive weekly decline and marking the longest losing streak since 1999, as improving supply prospects in West Africa continued to outweigh signs of resilient consumer demand in the U.S.

📉 Price Performance

• U.S. Cocoa (New York, Dec-25 contract): Settled at $5,837 per metric ton, down $106 (-1.8%) on the day and 5.48% lower for the week.
  Total trading volume reached 21,101 contracts.
• U.K. Cocoa (London, Dec-25 contract): Closed at £4,160 per metric ton, down £48 (-1.1%) on the session and 3.24% weaker for the week.
  Total daily volume stood at 23,041 contracts.

Prices have been sliding since mid-August, with both New York and London futures hovering near 18-month lows as traders bet on a rebound in West African production during the 2025/26 main crop.

🌍 Market Drivers

The extended slide reflects a growing consensus that supply conditions are improving. Recent rainfall in Ivory Coast and Ghana, along with higher farmgate prices, are expected to encourage farmers to deliver more beans for processing and export, according to analysts at Rabobank.

“Improved field conditions and government incentives have started to ease concerns about tightness,” said Carlos Mera of Rabobank. “However, demand recovery will likely lag, as chocolate makers remain cautious following last season’s record-high prices.”

On the demand side, attention turns to next week’s third-quarter grind data, which will offer a clearer picture of how much demand destruction has occurred in key consuming regions. Early estimates suggest year-on-year declines in Europe and Asia, while U.S. chocolate consumption has held relatively steady, supported by holiday-season retail sales.

🏭 Certified Stocks

Certified warehouse inventories continued to fall:

• U.S. certified stocks: 1,894,859 bags
• U.K. certified stocks: 495,313 bags

Declining stocks could provide limited short-term support, though the broader tone remains bearish amid expectations of larger 2025/26 surpluses.

📊 Market Outlook

Cocoa futures are on track for their longest weekly losing run in over 26 years, with speculative funds maintaining short positions as production prospects improve.
The most-active New York contract touched $5,851 a ton earlier in the session before paring losses.

Traders say the market may stabilize if short-covering emerges or if grind data surprise to the upside, but the near-term outlook remains tilted to the downside.