09.10.2025 - Daily Cocoa Market Report

Cocoa prices extended their decline on Thursday, though losses were more moderate compared to earlier in the week. U.S. futures closed lower again as traders continued to focus on improving West African supply and subdued global demand ahead of key grind data later this month.

📉 Price Performance

• U.S. Cocoa (New York, Dec-25 contract): Settled at $5,943 per metric ton, down $13 (-0.2%) on the day.
  Total trading volume reached 21,946 contracts.
• U.K. Cocoa (London, Dec-25 contract): Settled at £4,208 per metric ton, up £25 (+0.6%) from Wednesday.
  Total daily volume stood at 28,727 contracts.

Despite smaller moves, both markets remain near their lowest levels in more than 18 months. Traders say bearish sentiment persists amid signs of recovering harvests in Ivory Coast and Ghana.

🌍 Market Drivers

Reports from local exporters in West Africa indicate that main-crop arrivals continue to improve, with favorable early-season weather supporting pod development. Meanwhile, demand remains weak, as confectionery makers in Europe and North America scale back purchases and focus on managing existing inventories.

In contrast, U.S. consumer data showed signs of resilience in chocolate demand despite high retail prices. A Wells Fargo Agri-Food Institute report released Thursday noted that U.S. chocolate prices remain elevated heading into the Halloween season, as manufacturers pass on higher costs from last year’s record cocoa prices.

The report attributes the situation to severe supply disruptions in West Africa, where cocoa output dropped nearly 13% year-on-year in the 2024/25 season due to black pod disease, El Niño drought, and swollen shoot virus. Production in Ivory Coast and Ghana fell by over 25% and 30%, respectively.

Wells Fargo forecasts another 10% production decline in 2025/26, suggesting cocoa prices will remain elevated through at least September 2026. Additional pressure comes from new U.S. tariffs (15–25%) on cocoa imports from key suppliers, further raising costs for chocolate makers.

Consumers are advised to seek products with less cocoa content, compare prices, and consider generic brands to offset higher retail prices.

Analysts said the market could stabilize if speculative short positions begin to unwind, though the broader outlook remains bearish in the near term.

🏭 Certified Stocks

Certified warehouse stocks continued to decline:

• U.S. certified stocks: 1,910,873 bags (down 4,091).
• U.K. certified stocks: 495,313 bags (down 6,250).

Falling stocks could offer limited technical support, but sentiment remains cautious with supply recovery in focus.

📊 Market Outlook

Traders are closely monitoring upcoming Q3 grind figures from major consuming regions, which are expected to show year-on-year declines. Short-covering could trigger a brief rebound, but sustained recovery will depend on stronger consumer demand and clearer signs of tightening physical supply.