08.10.2025 - Daily Cocoa Market Report

Cocoa Trade Blog

— 2 min read

Cocoa prices continued their downward trend on Wednesday, with both U.S. and U.K. futures closing sharply lower as the market reacted to signs of improving supply and weaker demand across major consuming regions.

📉 Price Performance

  • U.S. Cocoa (New York, Dec-25 contract): Settled at $5,956 per metric ton, down $179 (-2.9%) on the day.
    Total trading volume reached 26,558 contracts.
  • U.K. Cocoa (London, Dec-25 contract): Settled at £4,183 per metric ton, down £79 (-1.9%).
    Total volume for the day stood at 27,943 contracts.

Both markets have now reached their lowest levels in over a year and a half, as investors grow increasingly concerned about the possibility of a global cocoa surplus in the 2025/26 season.

🌍 Market Drivers

Dealers reported that harvests in West Africa — particularly in Ivory Coast and Ghana — are picking up, boosting near-term supply. However, demand remains subdued, with third-quarter grind data expected to show year-on-year declines across Asia, Europe, and North America.

Meanwhile, both Ivory Coast and Ghana have recently raised farmgate prices for local farmers, a move that could encourage more producer sales and increase available supply in the short term.

Analysts at Citi and Société Générale described cocoa markets as “extremely oversold,” suggesting the potential for a short-covering rebound if prices stabilize. J.P. Morgan added that open interest in cocoa futures and options is rising again after hitting historic lows earlier this year, hinting that speculative positioning may be shifting.

🏭 Certified Stocks

Certified warehouse stocks continued to decline:

  • U.S. certified stocks: 1,914,964 bags, down 8,203 from the previous report.
  • U.K. certified stocks: 501,563 bags, down 1,563.

Falling certified stocks could provide limited near-term support if demand stabilizes, but the overall sentiment remains bearish amid growing expectations of improved global supply.

📊 Market Outlook

With London cocoa down 2.3% and New York cocoa 2.7% lower, traders are closely watching for fresh grind data later this month. A rebound may depend on how quickly speculative short positions are covered and whether consumer demand improves ahead of the holiday chocolate season.

📚 References

  1. Reuters. “SOFTS – London cocoa slumps to 1-1/2-year low, sugar also down.” (October 8, 2025).
  2. Bloomberg. “Cocoa prices plunge to 20-month low — but investment banks warn ‘extreme’ sell-off could create problems.” (October 8, 2025).
  3. ICE Futures U.S. and ICE Futures Europe. “Futures Daily Market Report for Cocoa.” (October 8, 2025).
  4. Cocoa Trade Blog data compilation — certified stock figures from ICE warehouse reports (October 8, 2025).

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